What can we know about future precipitation in Africa?
Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models

Africa, the second-largest continent on Earth and with the fastest population growth, is most vulnerable to weather and climate variability (Niang et al. 2014). For instance, over the past century, West Africa has been affected by significant climate anomalies, which have led to the severe droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. Other areas, such as the Horn of Africa, have also suffered serious droughts, particularly since the end of the 1960s. The city of Cape Town in South Africa has recently suffered, during 2015–2017, one of the worst multi-year droughts in decades (Otto et al. 2018). On the other hand, severe floods, which can result in substantial economic and human losses in both rural and urban areas (e.g., Tarhule 2005; Douglas et al. 2008) have even affected countries located in dry areas, such as Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Somalia (Niang et al. 2014).


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