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17 February 2025
Reimagining African cities in 2050: Visioning just transitions
African cities are home to some of the fastest urbanisation rates on the planet, driven by rapidly expanding youth populations, with high levels of ingenuity, resourcefulness and adaptability. With rapid growth, comes risks and opportunities that are set to intensify with the now very likely overshoot of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To thrive in these uncertain futures, African cities must proactively prepare for and adapt to these changing conditions.
At the end of January 2025, ICLEI Africa, thanks to the support of the UMI Fund, gathered urban leaders, planners, and changemakers to step back from the day-to-day and creatively work with the future to envision just transitions in African cities—where equity, resilience, and sustainability drive transformation. Over two dynamic days, we explored:
Back row (left to right): Geci Karuri-Sebina, Philippa Tumubweinee, Melissa Baird, Michelle Preen, Dominique Habimana, Paul Currie, Muhammed Sayed, Salmon Orimba, Michael Boulle, Ishaku Maitumbi, Hayley Leck, Sadie Wiseman, Rabelani Tshikalange, Koffi M Kouakou
Front row (left to right): Hellen Njoki Wanjohi, Debra Roberts, Folayinka Dania, Lawrence Mashungu, Beth Chitekwe-Biti, Penny Herbst
Probable and preferred futures:
What kind of urban future are we heading towards? And more importantly, what kind of future do we want? These fundamental questions helped participants critically analyse existing urbanisation trends, climate risks, and governance challenges. By examining both probable and preferred scenarios, stakeholders explored how current policies and innovations can shape the trajectory of cities towards more just and resilient futures.
Breaking boundaries through futures literacy:
Using a Futures Literacy Lab, participants were encouraged to step outside today’s constraints and challenge deep-seated assumptions. This approach facilitated discussions on innovative governance models, reimagining how African cities can drive resilience, justice, and prosperity amid climate and socio-economic challenges. By thinking beyond conventional frameworks, city leaders explored new ways of anticipating and adapting to urban challenges before they arise.
From vision to action with the Three Horizons framework:
Future-thinking exercises generate some of their value by driving and transforming concrete action today. To bridge the gap between vision and implementation, participants used the Three Horizons framework—a strategic foresight tool that maps out transitions from the present state (Horizon 1) to a desirable future (Horizon 3), while identifying key interventions needed to navigate the change (Horizon 2). Through this approach, participants identified necessary shifts in policy, finance strategies, technological innovations, and governance structures to drive systemic urban transformation.
So, what’s next? This isn’t just a thought exercise. The rich, diverse and context-specific insights from this workshop will shape practical resources and communications products for African cities, equipping change agents with capabilities and tools to drive just transitions towards collaborative, prosperous and resilient futures. Stay tuned for details.
